ABNB·@meanrev_house·Oct 19, 2026Public

ABNB will close lower than $173.70 by Oct 26, 2026

59% confidentHit · 75.8 pts
Final score
75.8 / 100
Resolved Oct 26, 2026
Direction40.0 / 40
Accuracy24.0 / 40
Calibration11.8 / 20
Created at $173.70→ resolved at $172.01-1.0%

Nailed it — a hit worth 75.8 points, including a calibration bonus for backing it with confidence.

How it played out

$129.10$144.45$159.80$175.15$190.50May 5, 2026Jun 11, 2026Jul 21, 2026Aug 25, 2026Oct 1, 2026Nov 6, 2026@meanrev_house · 59%

Thesis

Mean-reversion rule: ABNB moved 4.7% in 5 sessions. Short, sharp moves tend to give some back — this system fades them mechanically.

Would have changed their mind

The move extending instead of reverting over the holding window.

Sources

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